Metagame Analysis: March 2013

Carry

During workplace talks at the water cooler, the first thing that comes to mind when someone mentions carry heroes is most of the time Phantom Lancer. While the so-dubbed Lancer of Cancer has not really been chosen as much as other carries such as Lifestealer, he has drawn much moaning and groaning from stream chats when he is picked up due to how “easy” it is to play him (source: stream chats) and how boring it is to watch him (source: also stream chats). With his win rate going up to 63% this month from 44% last month, it remains to be seen if he will one day become the go-to carry for teams.

However, standing in his way is Gyrocopter, a hero that if banned, surely gives away the banning team’s intention to pick up a Phantom Lancer. His number of appearances in games has not changed this month, surely attributed to him being a solid tri-lane support, the ability to transition into a semi-carry with some farm and also abilities such as Flak Cannon and Call Down which are great for putting a stop to big pushes.

Pros this month have been coming up with new ways to build everyone's favorite zombie, Lifestealer, with last month's trend of Orchid Malevolence pickups slowly dying down. Popular this month is the race car build, seen mostly on carry players in the eastern scene but slowly making its way to the West. The build, once again, doesn't really care for previous goodies such as Desolator or Skull Basher after the core Armlet, but instead adding Drum of Endurance and Sange & Yasha to GO FASTER.

Also trending now is the propensity for Lone Druid players to rush the Armlet of Mordiggian instead of Radiance. This is mainly because while real Armlet users have to learn to watch their HP and Armlet toggle as needed, Lone Druid's bear is not really considered a hero and will gain the active Armlet bonuses without losing HP. Whether this is working as intended remains to be seen.

While Radiance is a great tool for Lone Druid to farm harder and pull ahead, the Armlet is much cheaper and gives him a good early to mid-game presence in team fights, as it is a full 2550 gold cheaper than a Radiance. With 5150 gold, a Lone Druid is able to access Radiance, but just the item only. With 50 gold more, at 5200 gold, Lone Druid can pick up Tranquil Boots for himself, in addition to an Armlet, Orb of Venom and Phase Boots for his bear.

 

Support

No surprises this month to see Keeper of the Light and Wisp at the top of the support game. Nothing much to say about Wisp as he/she/it has proven time and time again that if you let a team pick Wisp, they are sure to bring the aggression to you because nowhere is safe with Relocate.

Teams have also been looking for more synergies with Wisp, with Riki taking the carry role Keeper of the Light, however has seen slight nerf in the recent patch released sometime in the middle of March. In a nutshell, Illuminate's AoE has been reduced from 400 to 350 and its mana cost has been rescaled from 150 at all levels to 150/160/170/180 in the parity update in the last week of March. This has not stopped teams from picking him up/banning him in the last week of March. Personally I don’t really feel that the current change is a nerf as it doesn’t really change the hero much. All that the changes have done is force Keeper of the Light players to manage their mana pool a bit more and also to aim Illuminates a bit more accurately.

However that doesn’t mean that a player on Keeper of the Light randomly spamming Illuminates in general directions can’t somehow pick up a lucky kill, as 350 radius is still a pretty huge AoE. Perhaps a nerf to the travel distance or travel speed might actually hurt the hero a bit more; giving opposition more time to escape the 500(!) damage the blast carries at level 4.

Rubick this month has been picked up by teams much more than Shadow Demon and Bane, the most picked supports after Keeper of the Light and Wisp last month. His skillset is solid for a lane support, with a repositioning disable in Telekinesis and Fade Bolt, nuke that debuffs the units it chains onto. But what makes Rubick such a great pickup is that his ultimate, Spell Steal, is game-changing in the hands of a skilled player.

With all the top-tier heroes having great spells to steal (Reverse Polarity to initiate, Rage to escape, a plethora of AoE stuns), expect Rubick to stay at the top for a long time, as the only way for this hero to be ineffective is when he is played badly (you deserve to lose anyway) or if the opposing team outwits you by picking heroes without any good spells to steal (you're most probably going to win anyway).

It is also strange to see the popularity of Bane diminish. With Nightmare being a great
setup for skillshots such as Lina and Leshrac's stuns and Keeper of the Light's Illuminate, and also a channeled stun that goes through magic immunity, Bane has dropped in appearances from 88 games last month to only 64 games this month, putting him as the 5th most favored support after Keeper of the Light, Wisp, Rubick and Shadow Demon.

 

Solo Mid

Batrider, with 136 appearances, is once again the top choice for the solo mid role, followed by Magnus (129 apperances) and Nyx Assassin (128 appearances).

While Batrider and Magnus will probably be on top for the next month at least, the survivability of Nyx Assassin has made many herald his death as a solo mid, with the cooldown of Spiked Carapace rescaled from 14 seconds to 23/20/17/14 seconds and the duration nerfed to 2.25 seconds.

But honestly, just like the Keeper of the Light change, this change to Nyx Assassin just requires more micromanagement by the player in order to effectively play the hero, such as in the case of Nyx Assassin, the ability to use twitch skills to “disjoint” spells with Spiked Carapace, rather than to just run in and activate it, hoping to run into an opposing AoE or for an unknowing enemy hero to attack you.

Perhaps the biggest success story this month in the solo mid role is Storm Spirit, who has jumped from only 23 appearances in pro games last month to 53 appearances this month. A great hero that has high mobility once his ultimate is active; Storm Spirit is a great pickup for teams looking start to pick off heroes from the early game. The hero synergizes greatly with the #1 carry in the scene now, Lifestealer, as a great Infest target, and also with popular invisible scouting heroes such as Nyx Assassin and Bounty Hunter, with the ability to quickly reach targets that have been scouted out.

Solo mid mainstays Queen of Pain (75 appearances) and Puck (69 appearances) have also maintained their popularity as effective heroes in the mid that are integral to big teamfights, with Queen of Pain's huge AoE capabilities and also the utility that comes from Puck's silence and Dream Coil.

Also, the decline of Templar Assassin continues, with the hero only seeing 13 appearances this month down from 43 appearances last month. Behind her mask hides a frown.

 

Other Solo Laners

Top choice this month for the “other laners” category is Nature's Prophet, from only having slightly more than half the appearances of Dark Seer last month to now seeing ban/pick in 120 games this month! As with most of the heroes in this category, Nature's Prophet has a good presence in the lane as long as you micromanage his treants well, and can also retreat into the jungle for easy levels and farm, at the cost of giving the opponents a free lane.

But what makes him such a feared hero is his ability to split push with ease. With the current trend of a Shadow Blade for his first major pickup, Nature's Prophet forces the opponents to purchase detection to stop his pushing, even though he may be the only invis-ready hero on the team. That being said, a Nature's Prophet that plays conservatively and is not greedy will not even need to be afraid of ganks, as he can just teleport around the map, clearing single creep waves and then going to another lane to do the same thing, or moving into the jungle to farm.

Although technically a support hero, Chen, falling into the category of jungler, has been picked up a lot this month, seeing 79 appearances as compared to 49 appearances last month. Although he lacks the global presence of Nature’s Prophet, he is able to sustain himself in the jungle quite easily, and is able to bring a Centaur or Dark Troll Warlord buddy to quickly support the safe lane if need be.

Previously first-ban/first-pick material, we are perhaps finally witnessing the decline of Dark Seer. His number of appearances has reduced from 133 picks and bans last month to only 118 this month. Although a slight decrease, the real damage to his reputation is the statistic of his win rate dropping from 58% to only 39% this month. With big AoE DPS such as Jakiro falling out of favor in recent times, and requirement for the most precise follow-ups after a Vacuum, why first pick Dark Seer when you can pick up Magnus and do the exact same thing with Reverse Polarity? Sure, the cooldown on Vacuum is much shorter than Reverse Polarity, but how many perfect Vacuums will it take for you to produce the same impact in a teamfight as 1 perfect Reverse Polarity?

Once again, a big shoutout to dota-academy.com for their statistics and also to you, the reader, for your time. Also, I would like to add the disclaimer that I am not, in fact, dictating how one should play these heroes. Please don't think of me as some door-to-door Armlet salesman, trying to tell you what's best for your bear.